The Next Chapter of Obamacare

Welcome back from the summer.

It's been pretty quiet lately on the Obamcare front.

So quiet, that there has been a flurry of articles recently over how Obamacare has dropped to a second or even third tier issue and will hardly matter come election-time.

Wishful thinking.

Obamacare has largely been out of the news cycle for a couple of months but that is about to change.

A few thoughts.

The

Average California Obamacare Rate Increase Only 4%––Success!!!

The weighted average increase for plans being sold on the Obamacare California public exchange in 2015 will be 4%. So, that means Obamacare is working really well, right?

Well, wait a minute.

Let's consider a few things:

This week the California insurance commissioner reported that the average unsubsidized 2014 rate increase carriers charged going into Obamacare was between 22% and 88%. That

Halbig Decision Puts Obamacare Back on the Front Burner and Will Give Republicans a Huge Political Headache

Today's 2-1 decision by the DC Court of Appeals striking down federal premium subsidies, in at least the 27 states that opted for the feds to run their Obamacare insurance exchanges, has the potential to strike a devastating blow to the new health law.

The law says that individuals can get subsidies to buy health insurance in the states that set up insurance exchanges. That appears to exclude

"Biggest Insurer Drops Caution, Embraces Obamacare"

Kaiser Health News is out with that headline today reporting that UnitedHealthcare is expanding its Obamacare exchange presence planning to sell polices "in nearly half the exchanges next year." The story goes on to report that United's leadership is saying the new public marketplaces look sustainable.

There may be more to it than that.

Consider:

A carrier laying back the first year will have

Kaiser Family Foundation Survey Finds Most People Who Bought Health Insurance on the Exchanges Are Happy With It and That 57% Were Previously Insured––No One Should Be Surprised On Either Count

Let's take a look at both of these headlines:

Most People Are Happy
But Kaiser only asked the people who bought health insurance on the exchanges if they were happy with what Obamacare offered them.

As I have said before on this blog, two out of three subsidy eligible people did not buy a health insurance plan in the first open-enrollment.

This week the administration also reported that 76%

Obamacare: What About the Working Class and the Middle Class?

The administration issued a report yesterday that says individuals who selected plans in the federal health insurance exchanges have a post-credit premium that is on average 76% less than the full premium for the plans they selected. And, 69% are paying less than $100 after the subsidies––46% are paying $50 or less.

The administration also pointed out that 65% of individuals selecting the Silver

With the November Election Six Months Away Obamacare is Up For Grabs

House Energy and Commerce Committee Republicans seemed surprised last week when representatives of the insurance industry reported that they didn't have enough data yet to forecast prices for next year's health insurance exchanges, the market was not about to blow up, and that so far at least 80% of consumers have paid for the health insurance policies they purchased on the exchanges. The